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(This story was updated to add new information.)
A system in the Caribbean, designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, is expected to strengthen significantly over the next few days, according to the latest National Hurricane Center advisory. Forecasters are warning of trouble ahead for residents along the Gulf of Mexico, with the system expected to become a hurricane Wednesday.
The National Hurricane Center has issued tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches for portions of Mexico and Cuba and tropical storm watches are in effect for Dry Tortugas and the lower Florida Keys.
Rapid intensification is expected, the NHC said, adding models show the system has the potential to strengthen into a major hurricane over the next 72 hours. A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher storm, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
➤ Spaghetti models for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
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AccuWeather forecasters are predicting the system could become a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall, possibly on Florida’s Panhandle. Because rapid intensification is a strong possibility, residents were advised to prepare for a Category 4 storm.
“Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for hurricane impacts,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, adding the system has the potential to become the strongest hurricane landfall in the U.S. so far this season.
“AccuWeather expert meteorologists expect this to be a highly impactful storm,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season is remembered for.”
The next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Helene.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declares state of emergency
Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 41 of Florida’s 67 counties in advance of “Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine,” according to an executive order released Monday.
➤ Florida won’t escape this one. Prepare for major hurricane.
The state of emergency affects Alachua, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, Columbia, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hernando, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington counties.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 9: What you need to know
- Location: 105 miles southwest of Grand Cayman; 315 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba
- Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph
- Movement: north-northwest at 7 mph
- Pressure: 1003 mb
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Where is Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 going?
At 5 p.m. EDT, the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 82.2 West.
The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph.
A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
- Formation chance through 48 hours, high: 90 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.
Will a hurricane hit Florida?
“People along the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend region and much of the eastern Gulf coast need to complete preparations for hurricane impacts by Wednesday night before hazardous conditions arrive on Thursday,” AccuWeather said.
Where the system will go depends on several factors, including where a center develops as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico and a dip in the jet stream.
AccuWeather said there are two possible scenarios for the storm currently organizing, which all depend on where a dip in the jet stream moves the system and where the center forms as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico:
- Track 1 puts the center in the middle to upper Gulf Coast around New Orleans or Biloxi, Mississippi.
- Track 2 puts the center more toward Florida’s Big Bend.
Current forecasts are splitting the difference between the two scenarios, with a landfall predicted Thursday evening in the Tallahassee area.
“Residents along the entire Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Key West, Florida, including the Tampa Bay metropolitan areas, should closely monitor the progress of the potential storm,” AccuWeather said.
“This developing tropical threat is currently forecast to impact similar areas that were hit hard by Hurricane Idalia in August 2023.”
Rapid intensification could mean Category 3 hurricane, but prepare for a Category 4 storm
AccuWeather is expecting the storm to make landfall as a major Category 3 hurricane.
“This can be a large storm with life-threatening impacts such as storm surge and flooding rain hundreds of miles away from where the storm makes landfall – be sure to know the risks you can face in your community,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.
“There is limited time to prepare for this storm. Prepare for a possible Category 4 storm. It’s following a similar track to Michael and we don’t want people to be caught off guard. If you’re told to evacuate out of coastal areas, do so. Most deaths are water related, from flooding and storm surge.”
“This can be a large storm with life-threatening impacts such as storm surge and flooding rain hundreds of miles away from where the storm makes landfall – be sure to know the risks you can face in your community.”
Hurricane categories. What they mean and damage they could cause
- Category 1: Winds 74-95 mph. Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
- Category 2: Winds 96-110 mph. Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
- Category 3: Winds 111-129 mph. Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
- Category 4: Winds 130-156 mph. Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Category 5: Winds 157 mph or higher. Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
What tropical impacts are possible in Florida from Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 this week?
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches, bringing a risk of flooding, some of which could be considerable.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Dry Tortugas…1-3 ft
- Florida Keys…1-3 ft
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
All of Florida should prepare now for potential impacts from hurricane
“Now is the time to start preparing for a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast. Don’t wait for this storm to be officially named,” Porter said. Finish storm preparations Wednesday, DaSilva advised.
“This has the potential to rapidly intensify into a powerful hurricane. Don’t let your friends and family along the Gulf Coast be caught off guard. Give them a call or send them a text message and let them know to get ready for a hurricane.
“There is the potential that this storm could further strengthen into a major hurricane, which is a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 111-129 miles per hour.”
“This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season is remembered for,” Porter said.
“Impacts will be felt well away from the center,” DaSilva said. “It’s a pretty large system and the eastern side of the cone can expect impacts.” That includes all of Florida.
“A tiny shift to the east could bring even more impacts throughout Florida. Once a center forms, we’ll have a better clue on where it’s going as it moves into the Gulf, but from New Orleans to Tampa Bay, pay attention. Don’t let your guard down.”
Watches, warnings issued for Potential Tropical Cyclone 9
It’s too early for any Florida watches or warnings associated with the developing system but experts advise residents to watch Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine closely and make preparations now.
A hurricane watch is in effect for:
- Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
- Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
- Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
- Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
- Dry Tortugas
- Lower Keys, south of the Seven Mile Bridge
Spaghetti models for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
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Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Potential Tropical Cyclone 9
- The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with hurricane conditions possible.
- The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area tonight or Tuesday morning, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
- Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean which may lead to flooding and possible mudslides in western Cuba.
Current forecast: Where is Tropical Cyclone 9 going and how strong could it get?
- As of 5 p.m.: 35 mph (potential tropical cyclone)
- 12 hours: 40 mph (tropical cyclone)
- 24 hours: 50 mph
- 36 hours: 65 mph
- 48 hours: 85 mph
- 60 hours: 105 mph
- 72 hours: 115 mph
- 96 hours: 35 mph (post-tropical/inland)
- 120 hours: 25 mph (post-tropical/inland)
Watch for Hurricane Center’s new ‘cone of concern’
The National Hurricane Center launched its new “cone of concern” for Hurricane Ernesto on Aug. 14.
Ernesto stayed well away from Florida and the U.S., so residents didn’t see many differences between the original and new cone. One of the biggest differences between the two is that the new cone will show wind warnings issued for interior counties, not just those on the coast.
Both cones will be visible on the Hurricane Center’s website. Find the new cone by going to the graphics page for the storm, then click on “New Experimental Cone,” which will be highlighted in red.
Differences you’ll see:
- Watches and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
- White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white stippling (dots) for the four- and five-day forecast.
Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?
What do the watches and warnings from NHC mean?
What is storm surge?Graphics explain the deadly weather event
Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
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