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(This story was updated to add new information.)
In a hurry? Here’s what’s happening with Tropical Storm Helene in less than a minute.
Tropical Storm Helene formed Tuesday morning in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, is getting better organized and was strengthening into the night, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Several portions of Florida are under a hurricane watch or warning, tropical storm watch or warning, or storm surge warning. A tropical storm warning was issued for Lake Okeechobee, and a tropical storm warning has been issued from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.
The storm is expected to become a hurricane Wednesday and could reach Category 3 strength with 115-mph winds by the time it makes landfall Thursday.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Helene
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“The potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west gulf coast is increasing,” the Hurricane Center said.
“Due to the forecast large size of this system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall,” the Hurricane Center advisory warned.
“Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for hurricane impacts,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, adding the system has the potential to become the strongest hurricane landfall in the U.S. so far this season.
“AccuWeather expert meteorologists expect this to be a highly impactful storm,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said. “This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season is remembered for.”
Where is Jim Cantore? Weather Channel meteorologist in Port Richey, Florida
The Weather Channel announced its team coverage plan on X, formerly known as Twitter. Meteorologist Jim Cantore, well known for his reporting in the middle of a hurricane, is in Port Richey today, Sept. 24.
More Weather Channel coverage is based along the Gulf Coast, from Panama City Beach to Tampa.
Fox Weather sends Mike Seidel to St. George in Florida
Fox Weather has deployed Mike Seidel to St. George, Florida, ahead of what is expected to become Hurricane Helene
Gov. DeSantis increases number of counties under state of emergency
Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency Monday afternoon for 41 of Florida’s 67 counties, including all of the Florida Panhandle.
Tuesday morning, he increased the number of counties to 61.
Counties under the state of emergency are: Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Brevard, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Duval, Escambia, Flagler, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Glades, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lake, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Nassau, Okaloosa, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Volusia, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington counties.
Tropical Storm Helene: What you need to know

- Location: 100 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico; 145 miles south-southwest of the western tip of Cuba
- Maximum sustained winds: 60 mph
- Movement: west-northwest at 10 mph
- Pressure: 991 mb
Watches, warnings issued across Florida as Tropical Storm Helene approaches
➤ Florida won’t be able to dodge Helene
➤ Live updates: Get the latest on Tropical Storm Helene
Storm surge warning: A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
- Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
- Tampa Bay
- Charlotte Harbor
Hurricane warning: A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
- Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
- Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds.
- Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
- Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
Tropical storm warning: A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
- Dry Tortugas
- Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge
- Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
- Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
- Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
- Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
- Lake Okeechobee
Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
- Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Savannah River
How strong is Tropical Storm Helene and where is it going?
At 11 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Helene was moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph.
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A turn toward the northwest is expected later tonight, followed by a general northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later tonight or early Wednesday, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or early Wednesday. The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Helene
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Track Tropical Storm Helene
What else is the National Hurricane Center tracking?

As of the 8 p.m. Tropical Weather Outlook For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters were also tracking a broad low-pressure system in the Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic with a high chance of development.
The system is associated with a tropical wave was located west of the Cabo Verde Islands and producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves westward.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: Medium, 50 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: High, 80 percent.
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Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Helene
- Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength when it passes near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
- Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and grow in size over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are expected along the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so.
- Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of coast of the Florida Big Bend, where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area on Thursday.
- Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding and mudslides across western Cuba. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of Florida, the Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. This includes the risk of landslides across the southern Appalachians. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding is possible.
Current forecast: Where is Tropical Storm Helene going and how strong could it get?
- As of 5 p.m.: 50 mph
- 12 hours: 65 mph
- 24 hours: 75 mph
- 36 hours: 90 mph
- 48 hours: 115 mph
- 60 hours: 70 mph (inland)
- 72 hours: 35 mph
- 96 hours: 25 mph (post-tropical/inland)
- 120 hours: dissipated
What impact could Tropical Storm Helene have and what areas could be affected?
RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding likely, including the risk of landslides in areas of steep terrain in the southern Appalachians.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL…10-15 ft
- Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL…6-10 ft
- Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL…5-10 ft
- Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL…5-8 ft
- Tampa Bay…5-8 ft
- Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…4-7 ft
- Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL…3-5 ft
- Charlotte Harbor…3-5 ft
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area of Florida on Wednesday and spread northward through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday.
SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
See new ‘cone of concern’ with Helene
The National Hurricane Center first launched its new “cone of concern” for Hurricane Ernesto on Aug. 14.
Ernesto stayed well away from Florida and the U.S., so residents didn’t see many differences between the original and new cone. One of the biggest differences between the two is that the new cone will show wind warnings issued for interior counties, not just those on the coast.
Both cones will be visible on the Hurricane Center’s website. Find the new cone by going to the graphics page for the storm, then click on “New Experimental Cone,” which will be highlighted in red.
Differences you’ll see:
- Watches and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
- White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white stippling (dots) for the four- and five-day forecast.
Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?
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