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(This story was updated to add new information.)
In a hurry? Here’s what’s happening with Tropical Storm Helene in less than a minute.
Hurricane Helene is expected to become a major hurricane Thursday before making landfall along Florida’s Big Bend Coast, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Impacts will be far-reaching from the huge storm and most of Florida is either under a hurricane or tropical storm watch or warning. Life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rains are expected for a large portion of Florida and the southeastern United States.
Current predictions have Helene rapidly intensifying as it moves north in the Gulf of Mexico. Winds could get up to 130 mph over the next 24 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center. That would make Helene a strong Category 4 hurricane.
AccuWeather meteorologists also forecast Helene to peak as a Category 4 hurricane as it moves into the extremely warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph before landfall.
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Helene
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The National Hurricane Center said residents should complete preparations for the storm as soon as possible.
“Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene’s fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially ingusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southernAppalachians,” the Hurricane Center said.
In a rare weather news alert, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned that Helene has the potential to cause serious flash flooding and rainfall totals up to 18 inches hundreds of miles inland after landfall.
Where will Hurricane Helene make landfall?
Landfall is expected along the coast of the Florida Big Bend Thursday evening, according to the National Hurricane Center.
After landfall, Helene is expected to interact with a deep-layer trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley and swing back to the northwest and stall near the Tennessee Valley late Friday into the weekend.
➤ WeatherTiger: Hurricane Helene could be cataclysmic blow that will likely be among Florida’s worst
“It is still too soon at this point to be overly focused on an exact landfall location and time, since NHC track forecasts can be off by an average of 60 nm at the 36-hour forecast time,” the Hurricane Center said.
“Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for hurricane impacts,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, adding the system has the potential to become the strongest hurricane landfall in the U.S. so far this season.
“AccuWeather expert meteorologists expect this to be a highly impactful storm,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said. “This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season is remembered for.”
Don’t focus on the cone! Helene is large storm, impacts will be widespread
Use the slider to compare the old cone of concern to the experimental version now posted by the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricane Helene is expected to grow even larger before it makes landfall Thursday and impacts can be expected hundreds of miles from the center.
“This can be a large hurricane with life-threatening impacts such as storm surge and flooding rain hundreds of miles away from where the storm makes landfall,” Porter said.
“Storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side,” the National Hurricane Center said.
“In addition, the fast forward speed while Helene crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.”
Most of Florida under state of emergency
Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency for 61 of Florida’s 67 counties.
Counties under the state of emergency are: Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Brevard, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Duval, Escambia, Flagler, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Glades, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lake, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Nassau, Okaloosa, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Volusia, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington counties.
Hurricane Helene: What you need to know
- Location: 425 miles southwest of Tampa
- Maximum sustained winds: 85 mph
- Movement: north at 9 mph
- Pressure: 972 mb
Watches, warnings issued across Florida as Hurricane Helene approaches
➤ Florida won’t be able to dodge Helene
➤ Live updates: Get the latest on Tropical Storm Helene
Hurricane warning:
- Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch:
- Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Storm surge warning:
- Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
- Tampa Bay
- Charlotte Harbor
A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
Tropical storm warning:
- Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
- Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
- West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
- Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
- Lake Okeechobee
- Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watch:
No current tropical storm watches.
A tropical storm watch means sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
How strong is Hurricane Helene and where is it going?
At 11 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 86.6 West.
Helene is moving toward the north near 9 mph.
A northward or north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next 36 hours.
On the forecast track, Helene will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday and cross the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening.
After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.
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Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening.
Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene’s fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles.
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Helene
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.
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Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Helene
- A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so.
- Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend region late Thursday. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by early Thursday before tropical storm conditions arrive. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late Thursday and Thursday night where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
- Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, including numerous landslides, is expected across portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding and isolated major river flooding are likely. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Hurricane Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday.
Current forecast: Where is Tropical Storm Helene going and how strong could it get?
- As of 11 p.m.: 85 mph
- 12 hours: 110 mph
- 24 hours: 130 mph
- 36 hours: 60 mph (inland)
- 48 hours: 35 mph (post-tropical/inland)
- 60 hours: 30 mph
- 72 hours: 25 mph
- 96 hours: 15 mph
- 120 hours: dissipated
What impact could Tropical Storm Helene have and what areas could be affected?
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL…15-20 ft
- Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL…10-15 ft
- Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL…10-15 ft
- Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL…8-12 ft
- Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL…6-10 ft
- Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL…5-8 ft
- Tampa Bay…5-8 ft
- Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…4-7 ft
- East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL…3-5 ft
- Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL…3-5 ft
- Charlotte Harbor…3-5 ft
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in southern Florida tonight and will spread northward across the rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the warning area in western Cuba during the next several hours.
➤ Why is a storm surge so dangerous?
RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians,
Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals around 18 inches. This rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding. Numerous landslides are expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of Florida. The risk for tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding northward across Florida into parts of Georgia and South Carolina.
SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast tonight and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
See new ‘cone of concern’ with Helene
The National Hurricane Center first launched its new “cone of concern” for Hurricane Ernesto on Aug. 14.
Ernesto stayed well away from Florida and the U.S., so residents didn’t see many differences between the original and new cone. One of the biggest differences between the two is that the new cone will show wind warnings issued for interior counties, not just those on the coast.
Both cones will be visible on the Hurricane Center’s website. Find the new cone by going to the graphics page for the storm, then click on “New Experimental Cone,” which will be highlighted in red.
Differences you’ll see:
- Watches and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
- White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white stippling (dots) for the four- and five-day forecast.
Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?
What’s next?
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