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Live updates for Florida on Hurricane Milton are here.
Hurricane Milton formed Sunday afternoon as the storm slowly moves eastward over the Gulf of Mexico on a track that puts the tropical cyclone somewhere near the center of the Florida Peninsula.
The storm is rapidly intensifying with winds at 85 mph as of 8 p.m. and could become a Category 4 storm before landfall, the National Hurricane Center said.
Heavy rain is expected through Monday, well ahead of Milton, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. Tropical Weather Discussion. Even more rain related to the system is expected as the week begins, bringing the potential for considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Swells from the storm started affecting the Gulf Coast today and will increase as the week progresses. The swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, according to the NHC.
There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of Florida early Monday, the NHC warned.
Florida Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie is preparing for the largest evacuation since 2017’s Hurricane Irma, he said Sunday.
Expect “potential major, major impacts,” from Hurricane Milton, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said, including what’s now predicted to be 10 to 20 feet of storm surge that could deluge Tampa Bay, among other places, and flooded rivers.
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Hurricane Center forecasters said while Milton is a small hurricane now, wind shear could aid the storm in becoming a large hurricane by landfall, but there is still uncertainty about Hurricane Milton’s intensity and track. The storm could hit Florida as a major hurricane or weaken from a number of factors.
“Regional hurricane models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week, ” forecasters said in their NHC Milton 5 p.m. Discussion.
“There is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials,” forecasters reported.
Accuweather forecasters, in their Sunday reports, say they expect Milton to strengthen into a major, Category 3 or 4 hurricane before making landfall south of Tampa Bay, Florida, on Wednesday morning.
“This is an unusual and extremely concerning forecast track for a hurricane approaching the Tampa Bay area,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said. “Milton could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane with extreme impacts. This hurricane could create a life-threatening storm surge. Please make sure your family and in friends in this area are prepared.”
Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued in several counties and school closures have been announced as Milton approaches.
Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 54 Florida counties ahead of Hurricane Milton, which could bring Category 3 winds and flooding to already-heavily damaged Gulf Coast communities and beyond. The Florida counties included in the emergency declaration extend across the peninsula. They are:
Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Duval, Flagler, Gilchrist, Glades, Hamilton, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lafayette, Lake, Lee, Levy, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Nassau, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, St. Lucie Sumter, Suwanee, Taylor, Union, and Volusia.
Hurricane Milton in Gulf of Mexico
- Location: 250 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico; about 780 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida
- Maximum sustained winds: 85 mph
- Movement: east at 7 mph
- Pressure: 981 mb
➤ Milton may bring worst surge in a century to Tampa, southwest Florida
At 8 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Milton was located by Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 93.4 West.
Milton is moving toward the east near 7 mph, and this general motion is expected tonight.
An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts.
Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles.
Hurricane Milton land hazards
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Monday afternoon.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Hurricane Milton key messages
- Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton.
- While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight or early Monday. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.
- Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida through Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to Milton expected on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect.
Hurricane Milton maximum wind forecast
- 5 p.m.: 85 mph
- 12 hours.: 105 mph
- 24 hours.: 125 mph
- 36 hours.: 140 mph
- 48 hours: 145 mph
- 60 hours.: 140 mph
- 72 hours.: 120 mph
- 96 hours.: 75 mph (post-tropical/extra-tropical)
- 120 hours: 65 mph (post-tropical/extra-tropical)
Hurricane Milton: Spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Fourteen
Hurricane Milton track
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
Storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of Florida early Monday.
A hurricane watch is in effect for:
- Celestun to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
- Celestun to Cancun, Mexico
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.
Hurricane Kirk: What you should know
- Location: 1,050 miles west of the Azores
- Maximum sustained winds: 85 mph
- Movement: north-northeast at 23 mph
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Kirk
At 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 46.2 West.
Kirk is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph.
A turn toward the northeast is expected tonight. An acceleration toward the east-northeast or east is expected by Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts.
Although gradual weakening is expected over the next few days and Kirk is expected to become post-tropical on Monday, it will remain a large cyclone with a large wind field through the early part of this week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles.
Hurricane Leslie: What you should know
- Location: 950 miles west of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands
- Maximum sustained winds: 90 mph
- Movement: west-northwest at 9 mph
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Leslie
At 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 38.6 West.
Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Monday and continue through mid-week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.
Impacts: No impacts to land are expected.
What else is out there and how likely is it to strengthen?
Far eastern tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
What do the colored areas on the NHC map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Excessive rainfall forecast
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
When is hurricane season over?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season was Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
(This story has been updated to add new information and to add video.)
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