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Hurricane Milton is a Category 3 storm, with sustained winds of 120 mph as it churned toward Florida landfall Wednesday.
At 7 p.m. EDT, the northern eyewall of Milton has started to spread onshore along the Florida Gulf Coast near Tampa and St. Petersburg where an Extreme Wind Warning is now in effect, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory.
“Life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rains,” are expected across portions of central and southwestern Florida, forecasters said.
Latest track model guidance continues to insist that the hurricane will slow down a bit and turn more to the right very soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this evening.
Milton’s center is then expected to cross central Florida and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic, according to the NHC’s forecast.
Milton is expected to make landfall just south of Tampa Bay this evening, the NHC said, with devastating impacts from storm surge, flooding rain, possible tornadoes and damaging winds.
Florida can expect significant impacts north and south of the storm’s eye and catastrophic damage in the hours ahead, according to the latest advisory from the NHC.
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Milton
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While some weakening is expected before landfall, the National Hurricane Center warned Milton will be “a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida.” Forecasters said “Milton could be a major hurricane at landfall.”
At 7 p.m., sustained winds were at 120 mph. A Category 3 storm has winds between 111 and 129 mph. A Category 4 hurricane has winds between 130 and 156 mph.
Milton is anticipated to move off the east coast of Florida on Thursday as a hurricane.
“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida,” the Hurricane Center said, describing Milton as a “once-in-a-lifetime” storm.
The storm peaked Monday evening as one of the top 5 strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record with sustained winds of 180 mph — after undergoing rapid intensification — and a minimum pressure below 900 millibars.
“Milton is forecast to strike as a major hurricane, and if so would be the first Category 3+ since 1921 and only the sixth hurricane overall since the 1840s to make a landfall between Pasco and Sarasota counties,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
Why is everyone focused on storm surge with Hurricane Milton?
Of extreme concern to forecasters is storm surge, which the Hurricane Center said could hit 9 to 13 feet along several areas on Florida’s west coast. Storm surge kills more people during hurricanes than wind. Approximately 90% of all deaths in hurricanes worldwide are caused by drowning in either the storm surges or flooding caused by intense rainfall, according to the Florida Climate Center.
“The storm surge anticipated in some communities will be to the level of one- and two-story buildings and can reach that level with tremendous force in a matter of a few minutes,” AccuWeather warned.
➤ Live updates:Get the latest on Hurricane Milton as it approaches Florida
➤ WeatherTiger:Worst case scenario with cataclysmic storm surge beyond Helene
“Milton will be a surge event unlike any hurricane in living memory for west-central Florida, with only major hurricane strikes in 1848 and 1921 comparable in scope and height of the coastal flooding,” Truchelut said.
Because of the near-perpendicular angle Milton is expected to make landfall, storm surge will be maximized along the barrier islands and funneled into the many inland bays in the region, according to AccuWeather.
“A record storm surge can occur near and just to the south of where the eye moves ashore. At this time, a storm surge of 15-20 feet is forecast for Tampa Bay, as well as the Sarasota and Venice areas.
➤Reverse storm surge? What is that?
“Near and just south of where the eye rolls in around 2 a.m. EDT Thursday, some barrier islands and coastal mainland communities may experience extensive damage and may be altered permanently,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. “That’s how bad Milton can be.”
What impacts are expected in Florida from Hurricane Milton?
“The risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where landfall will occur. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone,” the Hurricane Center said.
Breakdown of the threats expected from Hurricane Milton:
- Catastrophic storm surge damage to a broad swath of west-central and Southwest Florida, potentially including Tampa Bay.
- “Anyone along or south of the center track will receive coastal flooding from a combination of ill-timed high tide, extreme wave action, and onshore winds piling in the surge,” Truchelut said.
- Damaging coastal and inland winds to Central Florida
- The NHC forecast calls for Milton to make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with an embattled inner core but an expanding outer windfield of tropical-storm-force winds. AccuWeather is predicting landfall as a Category 4 storm.
- Major metro areas that can expect the impacts of a hurricane include Orlando, Winter Haven and Daytona Beach, AccuWeather said.
- Flooding rains
- Coastal flooding
- Tornadoes
- Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida, the Hurricane Center said.
- Dangerous surf and rip currents
- Swells generated by Milton are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
- Widespread power outages.
- Some of the power outages may last many days to weeks in the hardest-hit areas, AccuWeather said
Where will Hurricane Milton make landfall?
➤ What is storm surge and why is it so dangerous?
When is Hurricane Milton expected to make landfall in Florida?
This is when various forecasters are predicting Hurricane Milton will make landfall:
- National Hurricane Center: Late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
- Truchelut: Between Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
- AccuWeather: Late Wednesday night. About 2 a.m. Thursday.
Hurricane Milton: What you need to know
- Location: 35 miles west-southwest of Sarasota; 140 miles southwest of Orlando
- Maximum sustained winds: 120 mph
- Movement: northeast at 15 mph
- Pressure: 952 mb
At 7 p.m., the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 83.0 West.
Milton is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph, and this motion is expected to continue through tonight.
A turn toward the east-northeast is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this evening, move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts.
Milton is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton could still be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening, and it will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida through Thursday.
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Milton
Milton is forecast to weaken over the western Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles.
To put it into perspective, the Florida Peninsula ranges in width from 100 to 140 miles wide.
Milton is expected to slow down a bit and turn more to the right very soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this evening. Milton’s center is then expected to cross central Florida and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic.
Milton is likely to be right near the threshold of a major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida this evening.
Watches, warnings issued across Florida ahead of Hurricane Milton
Here are the latest watches and warnings issued for areas threated by Hurricane Milton:
Hurricane warning:
- Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
- Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach
Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch:
- Lake Okeechobee
- Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
What is storm surge?Graphics explain the deadly weather event
Storm surge warning:
- Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
- Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River
Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
Tropical storm warning:
- Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
- Lake Okeechobee
- Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
- Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
- Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo
- North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
- Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watch:
- None issued for Florida at this time.
Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Milton
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Track Hurricane Milton
Excessive rainfall forecast
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Milton
- A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. Near the coast the surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will rise rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as the center makes landfall.
- Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight and early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an interior room, away from windows, as the core of the hurricane moves across the central Florida Peninsula.
- The risk of strong tornadoes will continue into the evening hours across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula. Be prepared to take immediate shelter in an interior room if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area.
- Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat.
Hurricane tracker: See the latest on projected path for Hurricane Milton
Current forecast: Where is Hurricane Milton going and how strong could it get?
- As of 5 p.m. EDT: 120 mph
- 12 hours: 90 mph (inland)
- 24 hours: 70 mph (over water)
- 36 hours: 65 mph (post-tropical/extra-tropical)
- 48 hours: 60 mph
- 60 hours: 45 mph
- 72 hours: 40 mph
- 96 hours: 35 mph
- 120 hours: 30 mph
What impacts could Hurricane Milton have and what areas could be affected?
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL…9-13 ft
- Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL…6-9 ft
- Tampa Bay…6-9 ft
- Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…8-12 ft
- Charlotte Harbor…8-12 ft
- Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…5-8 ft
- Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL…3-5 ft
- Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA…3-5 ft
- Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL…2-4 ft
- Dry Tortugas…2-4 ft
- St. Johns River…2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida this evening through Thursday morning and are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the west coast of Florida and are forecast to spread across the peninsula and reach the east coast this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia and South Carolina coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.
TORNADOES: Several tornadoes, possibly including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
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(This story was updated to add new information and to change a video.)
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